Calcul de cote

Convertir un ratio en pourcentage :

Côte de 2:1 signifie que je dois espérer gagner au minimum 2 fois pour une défaite. Il faut gagner deux fois sur trois
2/3 du temps signifie que j’ai 66% de chance de gagner.

Diviser le nombre de fois où vous devez gagner puis diviser par la somme des deux chiffres
Ex 1 : Favori à 2:1 (Vous vous attendez à gagner 2 fois et predre 1 fois)
2/(2+1) = 2/3 = 0.666 = 66%

Ex 2 : Favori à 3:2 (Vous espérez gagnez 3 fois et perdre 2 fois)
3/(3+2) = 3/5 = 0.6 = 60%

Ex 3 :  4:1 dog, tu espère gagner une fois et predre 4 fois
1/(1+4) = 1/5 = 0.2 = 20%

Convertir un pourcentage en ratio :

With a ratio, we put wins on the left side and losses on the right
Ex 1. – If we’re 75% to win that means out of 100 tries, we win 75 and lose the other 25.
75% = 75:25 or 3:1 favorite
Ex 2. – 33%
33:67 or 2:1 dog
Ex 3. – 83%
83:17 or 4.9:1 favorite

Côtes à retenir :

Preflop AI matches:

Pair over pair (AA vs TT) – 4:1 or 80%
Pair vs two overcards (88 vs AK) – 1.2:1 or 55%
Pair vs two undercards (KK vs 98) – 4.9:1 or 83%
Pair vs higher card/lower card (QQ vs KT) – 2.3:1 or 70%
Two higher cards vs two lower cards (KQ vs 98) – 1.9:1 or 65%
High card/low card vs non pair (AT vs KQ) – 1.2:1 or 55%

Postflop:

Hand – Outs – Flop – Turn
Pocket pair (postflop) – 2 – 10.9:1 or 8.4% – 22.3:1 or 4.3%
Gutshot straight draw – 4 – 5.1:1 or 16.5% – 10.5:1 or 8.7%
Overcards – 6 – 3.1:1 or 24% – 6.7:1 or 13%
OESD – 8 – 2.2:1 or 31.5% – 4.7:1 or 17.4%
FD – 9 – 1.9:1 or 35% – 4.1:1 or 19.6%
FD + overcard – 12 – 1.2:1 or 45% – 2.8:1 or 26.1%
FD + OESD – 15 – 1:.95 fav or 51.2% – 2.3:1 or 30.4%
FD + overs – 15 – 1:.95 fav or 51.2% – 2.3:1 or 30.4%

Pot Equity

Pot equity = (out % chance of winning) x (the pot)
Equity can only be calculated when we know the opponent’s hand or have an idea about his hand range.
Ex. There is $500 in the pot and we have 25% equity. $500 x .25 = $125

Expected Value (EV)

Definition: EV is the determination of what our long term expected outcome is on a given hand in profit or loss.
EV is also known as Sklansky Bucks, named after renowned 2+2 poker author David Sklansky
Ex. 1
We have AcKc and $1000 effective stacks. Our opponent holds 8s7s on a AhQs2s flop. We bet $175 into a pot of $250 and our opponent shoves for his remaining $875. What is the EV of our call?
Our equity in the pot or our chance to win this hand is about 63%
total pot = (250+175+875) = 1300 and it is 700 for us to call
EV = .63(1300) – .37(700)
EV = $560

Côte du pot

Definition: Rapport entre la valeur du pot et le montant à miser pour suivre.
Ex. Le pot fait 40€ et vilain mise 10€. C’est à notre tour, quelle est la côte pour suivre ?
40€ +10€ = pot = 50€
Pour continuer avec notre main, nous devons payer 10€ pour gagner 50€ soit 50:10 ou 5:1 ce qui signifie que nous devons gagner le coup 1 fois sur 6 pour que ce soit rentable.
Pour jouer correctement la main, la côte du pot doit être meilleur que la côte de notre main.

Ex :
Ex. If you are a 2:1 dog, as you know that means you’ll lose twice foe each time you win. To continue you’d need at least 2:1 on your money to break even. Any better than that and you’ll make money over the long haul. Any worse, you’ll lose.
If we know our odds of winning the hand, we can determine what odds we need to call a bet profitably
Ex. 1 – Let’s say you have 6h8h and the board is 9723r and you’re playing against a tight player who bets $40 into a $50 pot on the turn. You suspect, at worst, this player has a pair of nines and the only way you can win is to hit one of your straight outs. Do you have pot odds to call?
OESD has 8 outs to improve
We are roughly a 5:1 dog (4.7:1 exactly) to improve on the river
He bet $40 into $50 pot so total = $90 and it costs us $40 to win it
We are risking 40 to win 90, getting 90:40 or 2.25:1 odds on our call
We need 4.7:1 to make the call, we can’t profitably continue in this hand based on pot odds alone.
Ex. 1 continued – Let’s say we’ve got the same 6h8h again and the same 972r board but this time we’re on the flop and we’re playing against a loose passive player who goes too far with his hands and calls to much but generally won’t put money in postflop without top pair or better. The pot is $100 and we’ve got %950 behind in our stack. He makes a pot bet, $100 into $100 pot. Based on our pot odds, call or fold?
We’ve got 8 outs to the straight, that means we need 2.2:1 on a call based on pot odds alone. We’re getting 200:100 or 2:1 on a call so we fold right?
WRONG! Our flop odds assume we get to see both the turn and the river but often in NLHE that’s not the case. Therefore it is better to calculate based on the odds you’ll hit on the next street.
So do we still fold because we need 4.7:1 and we are getting 2:1?
No. Why?
We have a read that this player calls much too liberally postflop and that he rarely puts money in the pot without at least top pair. He’s willing to pay us off whenever he has a decent pair and he usually has a hand when he bets so he’ll have something to pay us off with often. Another piece of good news is that the stacks are deep. We have $950 left to play with and we have reason to believe he will put a lot of $ in with marginal holdings.

Laisser un commentaire